Looks like the competition is getting even more fierce at the country’s elite universities.  In a follow-up to an old post about the admission rate, I took a new look at the undergraduate numbers:

As you can see, these three schools have become increasingly selective over the past ten years.  What’s driving this?  Well, it isn’t a change in the number of admittance offers:

Instead, the trend can be seen in a stark rise in the number of applications:

Why the increase?  I’m not sure.  It’s well known that graduate school applications track the unemployment rate, but I’m not sure about undergraduate applications.  One possible explanation is that while the population continues to grow, the number of slots available at the super-selective universities remains relatively constant.  Another is that self-selection might not be as strong an influence, i.e., that less-qualified students are giving it a shot.

(I would also like to note that acceptance rates have been declining for universities in general, not just the so-called elites.)

Where will it end?  Will the crushing cost of a year of university education finally halt the rise? (Unlikely, given the generous financial aid packages these well-endowed schools are offering “low” income students.)  Will fewer students bother applying once they see the bleak odds of gaining admittance?  Will students decide to apply to fewer universities, thereby decreasing the total number of applications and increasing the university yield rates?  Time will tell.

(Data collected from press releases from the individual schools)