Gonzales will resign in September. Hillary will take the White House. Jordin will be the American Idol winner.

Do those scenarios sound likely? Some people find them probable enough to put money on the line. Each prediction is based on a contract price at Intrade, which is a futures market similar to the Iowa Electronic Market.

People buy contracts that pay off if certain events occur. Higher-probability event contracts fetch higher bid prices, so high prices correlate with likely events. Categories range from weather to politics, many with significant volume.

Can the markets predict outcomes? The data suggest they can.

(This post is part of the 100/100/100 challenge)